4/9/08
Childers claims tie in poll for special
The Hill - Dems hopeful to pick up Wicker’s House seat - Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers’s (D) campaign released an internal poll Wednesday showing the Democrat in a virtual tie with the GOP nominee, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis. Childers took 41 percent of the vote to Davis’s 40 percent in the poll, which was performed in recent days by Anzalone Liszt Research. It surveyed 500 likely special-election voters, weighted according to expected geographical turnout. The race still has many variables, but the poll indicates the April 22 contest could be competitive....When all six candidates, including McCullough and Holland, are tested in the Childers poll, McCullough takes 14 percent and Holland takes 7 percent. But Childers actually loses his slight lead when all six candidates are included, as Davis takes a 29-27 edge. Davis’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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5 comments:
Polling is part science, part art. And is subject to interpretation and susceptible to manipulation. So, WHO is doing the polling matters. This firm is a self-described Dem polling firm. That doesn't make its polls useless necessarily, though. On its track record, so far, I've only found that this is the firm that showed the Lt. Gov. race last year close to a dead heat (vote was 59-41). I believe Childers has potential to be a formidable candidate for the Dems, just not convinced this poll has any value.
The poll I saw from this group on the lite guv race had Bryant 43%/Franks 35%, leaving 22% undecided. Obviously, Bryant's campaign continued to gain momentum and took 2/3 of the undecided. I think the poll is pretty straight-forward, and as usual with close races, it's gonna be a matter of turnout. Frankly, if 19% of the people are undecided, how many of those folks are gonna go vote. Should be interesting.
This shows it a little different, but I don't remember the poll at the time. http://yallpolitics.com/index.php/yp/post/7538/
But even the best pollsters would have a hard time getting their arms around a special election, which is the 3rd election in 9 weeks and has two defeated candidates still on the ballot. The scenario sounds made up.
I don't think this poll has the crazy assumptions that were assumed in the other one. I do agree that turnout is the X factor and now that everyone is gonna be on the ballot, will there be another runoff? I'd think someone anyone making the effort to vote in this thing will know who's in and who's out, but I may be assuming too much.
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