Roll Call: McCullough Leading

Roll Call - New Poll Shows McCullough Leading in Mississippi Runoff - With two weeks to go in Mississippi’s 1st district Republican primary runoff, a new poll released this week by Glenn McCullough’s campaign showed the former Tupelo mayor with a 7-point lead over Southaven Mayor Greg Davis.

The On Message Inc. survey of 400 likely voters showed McCullough with 45 percent and Davis with 38 percent. It had a 4.9-point margin of error. The poll was conducted on the two days following the primary election on March 11 in which McCullough earned 39 percent and Davis took 37 percent.

The On Message polling memo appeared to confirm the come-from-behind nature of McCullough’s primary campaign.

In late February, a Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted for Davis’ campaign gave Davis an 18-point lead. The On Message memo noted that McCullough’s own campaign had the former Tupelo mayor down by 23 points in a Feb. 12 poll.

But McCullough came on strong by rallying his Tupelo base — which also was now-Sen. Roger Wicker’s (R) base during his seven House terms — and in the rural areas of Northern Mississippi. In the primary he beat Davis in 18 of 24 counties in the district. He also outraised Davis over the last 10 days of the campaign, according to Federal Election Commission reports.

The On Message polling memo said that “the only path to victory that remains for Greg Davis is to pursue a high-risk strategy of negative messaging. ... With his vote share decreasing, we fully expect Davis to remain negative throughout the runoff election.”